Is there a method to the madness?

Global markets underestimated Trump

Whatever one thinks of the man and the method, it is hard to deny that a major reason for people being upset with Trump is his determination to do what the promised to before the election. I believe it is too early to tell what the consequences of numerous new tariffs will be, but I have to admit that the fact that markets appeared to be blindsided by them has been a surprise. These tariffs were announced as early as February 2023 as part of Trump’s “Agenda 47.”

Obviously we are no longer used to politicians following through on their promises. That being said however, Trump is in many ways moving us into uncharted territory. Some of his defenders argue that similar tax policies have been pursued under Ronald Reagan as well, but as this graph from the New York Times shows, the dimensions are entirely different.